Asian shares mostly rose Monday and oil prices fell after U.S. President Donald Trump said talks on ending the war with Iran are progressing. The market cheer came from the top, where state power and war-making decisions can still swing prices, currencies, and the cost of fuel for everyone else. Japan’s benchmark Nikkei 225 surged 3.1% in morning trading to 65,321.56. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 added 0.4% to 8,692.70. The Shanghai Composite edged up 0.4% to 4,127.53.
Who Gets Hit First
Trump said negotiations with Iran were “proceeding in an orderly and constructive manner.” Regional officials told The Associated Press on Sunday that the United States is close to reaching a deal with Iran that would end the war, reopen the Strait of Hormuz and see Iran give up its stockpile of highly enriched uranium. That is the language of power negotiating over territory, weapons, and access to oil while ordinary people absorb the consequences through prices, shortages, and instability.
Reopening the Strait of Hormuz will help decide the direction of oil prices. The closure has prevented oil tankers from exiting the Persian Gulf and delivering crude to customers worldwide. Japan imports almost all its oil, most of it through the strait. When the choke point closes, the costs do not stay in the boardrooms or the war rooms; they move outward into the lives of everyone dependent on fuel, transport, and basic supply chains.
What the Markets Call Peace
Analyst Stephen Innes said, “Markets are rapidly transitioning from pricing geopolitical fear toward pricing a potential peace dividend as Hormuz reopening expectations pressure oil and the dollar lower.” The phrase “peace dividend” lands differently when the dividend is measured in falling oil prices and currency shifts after a war and a blockade have already done their damage.
Early Monday, benchmark U.S. crude was down $4.35 at $92.25 a barrel. Brent crude, the international standard, sank $4.16 to $99.38 a barrel. In currency trading, the U.S. dollar declined to 158.80 Japanese yen from 159.16 yen. The euro cost $1.1641, up from $1.1605. The apparatus of global finance reacted immediately to the possibility that state actors might loosen one of the world’s most important maritime bottlenecks.
The People Below the Charts
Trading was closed in South Korea and Hong Kong for holidays marking Buddha’s birthday, and trading will be closed in the U.S. on Monday for Memorial Day. The machinery pauses for holidays, but the larger system keeps moving: war, trade, oil, and speculation remain tied together whether the exchange floor is open or not.
Friday on Wall Street, stocks finished their eighth straight winning week, the best such streak since 2023, even though a survey showed U.S. consumers are feeling even worse about the economy. The S&P 500 added 0.4% and pulled closer to its all-time high set in the middle of last week. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.6%, and the Nasdaq composite gained 0.2%. Recent earnings reports from U.S. companies that topped analysts’ expectations also helped markets. The winners at the top keep winning even as the survey data says consumers are feeling worse.
Worries about inflation have pushed bond yields higher worldwide. The yield on the 10-year Treasury edged down to 4.56% Friday from 4.57% late Thursday, but it remained well above its 3.97% level from before the war. That gap is the quiet ledger of hierarchy: war, inflation, and financial discipline imposed from above, with the costs carried below.