Bolivia's State Power and Morales' Armed-Struggle Warning

At an Evo Pueblo congress in Lauca Ñ on Saturday, October 24, Evo Morales warned that “at any moment armed struggle can return” if his political movement keeps being eliminated. He said he disagrees with that path. ANF quoted him saying social sectors would defend their rights “with or without leaders.” The warning comes amid political prosecutions, protests over economic measures and a planned march on La Paz.

Morales later wrote on social media that the movement had chosen “a revolution with the vote and not with the bullet,” saying that choice had avoided armed conflict. According to Correo del Sur, he told delegates, “I am very afraid, I want you to know. If they keep eliminating us as a political liberation movement, but democratically, at any moment armed struggle can return.” He did not identify who he believed was eliminating the movement. Whether the warning was rhetoric or a signal remained unclear. He said he opposed armed struggle.

Who Faces the State’s Reach

Morales faces at least two arrest orders that police haven’t carried out. He hasn’t been convicted in either case, and his side rejects both proceedings. One case in Tarija concerns alleged aggravated human trafficking linked to a minor in 2015 and has not gone to trial. Morales’s lawyer, Elmer Bautista, called the process “improper and illegal.”

The second arrest order stems from protests. Morales said, “I was not at the march, I was not at the blockades.” ANF reported police haven’t arrested him because supporters shelter him in the Cochabamba tropics. In that account, supporters—not an announced arrest operation—stand between Morales and the police orders.

Morales leads a movement opposing economic measures by Bolivia’s current president, Rodrigo Paz. A march planned in Cochabamba that week was cancelled over fears that leaders would be arrested. Supporters have planned a march on La Paz; Correo del Sur reported it was moved to Friday, November 6, though no other outlet reviewed reported that date. Whether it will proceed remains uncertain.

Last month, Morales gave the government an ultimatum: reverse a diesel price increase and economic policies agreed with the International Monetary Fund. He said protests would begin Tuesday, October 13, but ANF reported the protest was suspended without a new date. Ombudsman Pedro Callisaya warned that conflicts hadn’t fallen despite a state of exception, amid continuing demands over food and jobs.

Economic Pressure and Official Responses

Bolivia’s ombudsman counted 168 social-conflict events from July 1 to September 30, 2026. Of those, 109 took place and 59 remained announcements. The figures track both organized action and threats of action as public pressure grows around livelihoods and government policy.

Net international reserves stood at US$3.978 billion on Friday, October 16, including US$647 million in foreign currency. Foreign-currency reserves sat below the 2026 high of US$897 million in May. The central bank’s official rate for October 24 to 26 was Bs 11.88 per US dollar, and its website said the fixed exchange-rate regime had been fully abandoned in June 2026.

The State Department tied its visa campaign to the Shield of the Americas leaders’ statement of September 22. On October 22, Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s statement said the United States was imposing visa restrictions on 40 individuals in Bolivia and named 15 Bolivian nationals. The policy targets people Washington says undermine democratically elected governments through corruption or narcotrafficking, regardless of political affiliation. The statement made no court finding against the 15 named people; a visa restriction is an administrative measure, not a conviction.

Washington’s Leverage, La Paz’s Silence

The State Department said Washington “stands with the government of Bolivia” against criminal influence in courts, police and the legislature. It cited Section 212(a)(3)(C) of the Immigration and Nationality Act, which allows the Secretary of State to refuse a visa when entry could have serious adverse foreign-policy consequences.

Morales said the visa “is of no use to us at all,” while accusing Washington of using it to “blackmail corrupt authorities, some judges, prosecutors who work with drug trafficking.” He said those who “negotiate with the empire” become untouchable while those who don’t lose their visa. Presidency spokesman José Luis Gálvez told Unitel the measures showed “many coincidences” with investigations the government was already conducting.

The government said Monday, October 5, that it was activating “collaboration at regional level” on the Morales case, Erbol reported, but no arrest operation had been announced. No response from Paz’s government to Morales’s armed-struggle warning had been published by Sunday morning, October 25.