Europe could run out of jet fuel within six weeks, threatening widespread flight cancellations and placing the burden of a deepening global energy crisis squarely on travelers and developing nations, the head of the International Energy Agency warned Thursday.
IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol described the situation as "the largest energy crisis we have ever faced," stemming from blocked oil, gas and other vital supplies through the Strait of Hormuz due to the Iran war. The shortage threatens not only mobility but also economic stability, with working families facing higher costs for gasoline, gas and electricity while airlines cut routes that are "no longer financially viable to operate."
Travelers and Workers Bear the Costs
"In Europe, we have maybe six weeks or so (of) jet fuel left," Birol told The Associated Press from his Paris office. "If we are not able to open the Strait of Hormuz ... I can tell you soon we will hear the news that some of the flights from city A to city B might be canceled as a result of lack of jet fuel."
Travelers are already paying the consequences, with carriers increasing ticket fares and add-on fees. Dutch airline KLM is cutting 160 flights to and from Amsterdam's Schiphol airport next month, accounting for about 1% of its total European routes, citing "rising kerosene costs." While KLM and U.K.-based budget carrier easyJet said Thursday they were not experiencing current fuel shortages, U.S. carrier Delta Air Lines acknowledged Europe's "potential jet fuel supply issue" and said it was monitoring the situation.
Nearly 20% of the world's traded oil passes through the Strait of Hormuz in peacetime. Birol warned that the impact would mean "higher petrol (gasoline) prices, higher gas prices, high electricity prices," speaking in his Paris office looking out over the Eiffel Tower. "In the past there was a group called 'Dire Straits.' It's a dire strait now, and it is going to have major implications for the global economy. And the longer it goes, the worse it will be for the economic growth and inflation around the world," he said.
Developing Nations Face Disproportionate Harm
Birol emphasized that the countries suffering most would be developing nations, including poorer countries in Asia, Africa and Latin America. "Everybody is going to suffer," he said, adding, "Some countries may be richer than the others. Some countries may have more energy than the others, but no country, no country is immune to this crisis."
The IEA director warned that not reopening the waterway within weeks could compound repercussions for global energy supplies. "Many government leaders tell me that if Hormuz is not open until (the) end of May, many countries — starting from the weaker economies — are going to face huge challenges, and this will go from the high inflation numbers to coming close to slow growth or even to recession in some cases," Birol said.
More than 110 oil-laden tankers and over 15 carriers loaded with liquefied natural gas are waiting in the Persian Gulf and could help ease the energy crisis if they could escape through the Strait of Hormuz to world markets, Birol said, adding: "But it is not enough."
Long Recovery Ahead
Even with a peace deal, war damage to energy facilities means it could be many months before preconflict levels of production are restored. "Over 80 key assets in the region have been damaged. And out of these 80, more than one-third are severely or very severely damaged," Birol said. "It will be extremely optimistic to believe that it will very quick. It will take gradually, gradually, up to two years to come back where we were before the war."
Birol spoke out against the so-called "toll booth" system that Iran has applied to some ships, letting them travel through the strait for a fee. He said allowing that to become more permanent would risk setting a precedent that could then be applied to other waterways, including the vital Malacca Strait in Asia. "If we change it once, it may be difficult to get it back," he said. "It will be difficult to have a toll system here, applied here, but not there." He added: "I would like to see that the oil flows unconditionally from the point A to point B."
Birol said it was incomprehensible that "a couple of hundred men with guns" — apparently referring to Iranian forces — were able to hold hostage the global economy. He said his Paris-based agency, which advises governments on energy policy and helped coordinate a record release of emergency oil reserves earlier in the crisis, had warned for years about the critical importance of the Strait of Hormuz. He said the global shock could spur the embrace of other energy technologies, including nuclear power, and "will reshape the global energy map for the next years to come."
On his office shelves, Birol said he had a couple of soccer balls, as he is a devoted supporter of the Turkish club Galatasaray, and other memorabilia, including a photo of his late father playing soccer, and reams of books. One book stood out for its timely title: "Oil, Power and War." Birol said: "Energy and geopolitics have been always interwoven." He added: "But I have never, ever seen ... such a dark and long shadow of geopolitics." He also said: "Unfortunately, energy is at the heart of many conflicts which, again, makes me, as an energy person, rather sad, to be honest."
Why This Matters:
The looming jet fuel shortage exposes how geopolitical conflicts translate directly into hardship for ordinary people—canceled flights, higher travel costs, and cascading economic pain that hits the most vulnerable hardest. Developing nations, already struggling with limited resources, face disproportionate harm from inflation and potential recession, while working families across Europe and beyond confront rising costs for basic necessities like gasoline and electricity. The crisis underscores the urgent need for coordinated international action to protect shared resources like the Strait of Hormuz, through which nearly 20% of the world's traded oil flows. Without collective diplomatic and economic intervention, the world risks not only immediate disruptions but a two-year recovery period that could deepen global inequality and economic instability. The situation demonstrates that energy security is inseparable from human security, requiring multilateral cooperation and strategic investment in diverse, sustainable energy sources to prevent future crises from holding the global economy—and the people who depend on it—hostage.