Europe could run out of jet fuel in as little as six weeks if critical oil supply routes remain blocked, the International Energy Agency warned Thursday, raising the specter of flight cancellations and economic disruption across the continent. IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol described the situation as "the largest energy crisis we have ever faced," caused by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz amid the Iran war.
Nearly 20% of the world's traded oil passes through the Strait of Hormuz in peacetime. Birol warned that failure to reopen the waterway within weeks could compound repercussions for global energy supplies. "In Europe, we have maybe six weeks or so (of) jet fuel left," he told The Associated Press from his Paris office. "If we are not able to open the Strait of Hormuz ... I can tell you soon we will hear the news that some of the flights from city A to city B might be canceled as a result of lack of jet fuel."
Market Disruption Already Underway
Airlines are already feeling the economic pressure. Dutch carrier KLM announced it is cutting 160 flights to and from Amsterdam's Schiphol airport next month, representing about 1% of its total European routes, citing "rising kerosene costs" that have made certain flights "no longer financially viable to operate." U.K.-based budget carrier easyJet and KLM both said Thursday they were not experiencing current fuel shortages, though neither commented further on the IEA warning. U.S. carrier Delta Air Lines acknowledged awareness of the continent's "potential jet fuel supply issue" and said it was monitoring the situation without expecting immediate impacts. The three airlines were among those that had already seen higher costs eat into their budgets.
Travelers are paying the price through increased ticket fares and add-on fees as carriers pass costs along to consumers. Birol warned the impact would mean "higher petrol (gasoline) prices, higher gas prices, high electricity prices."
Global Economic Consequences
The crisis extends far beyond Europe's borders. More than 110 oil-laden tankers and over 15 carriers loaded with liquefied natural gas are waiting in the Persian Gulf, unable to reach world markets through the blocked strait. "But it is not enough," Birol said, noting that even if released, these supplies would not fully resolve the shortage.
Birol said developing countries in Asia, Africa and Latin America would suffer most, though he emphasized: "Everybody is going to suffer. Some countries may be richer than the others. Some countries may have more energy than the others, but no country, no country is immune to this crisis."
Government leaders have told Birol that if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed until the end of May, "many countries — starting from the weaker economies — are going to face huge challenges, and this will go from the high inflation numbers to coming close to slow growth or even to recession in some cases."
Iran's 'Toll Booth' System Raises Concerns
Birol spoke out against Iran's "toll booth" system that allows some ships to travel through the strait for a fee, warning it could set a dangerous precedent for other critical waterways including the Malacca Strait in Asia. "If we change it once, it may be difficult to get it back," he said. "It will be difficult to have a toll system here, applied here, but not there." He added: "I would like to see that the oil flows unconditionally from the point A to point B."
The IEA director said it was incomprehensible that "a couple of hundred men with guns" — apparently referring to Iranian forces — were able to hold hostage the global economy. He noted his Paris-based agency, which advises governments on energy policy and helped coordinate a record release of emergency oil reserves earlier in the crisis, had warned for years about the critical importance of the Strait of Hormuz.
Long Road to Recovery
Even with a peace deal, war damage to energy facilities means it could be many months before preconflict production levels are restored. "Over 80 key assets in the region have been damaged. And out of these 80, more than one-third are severely or very severely damaged," Birol said. He estimated it could take "up to two years to come back where we were before the war."
Birol suggested the global shock could spur adoption of alternative energy technologies, including nuclear power, and "will reshape the global energy map for the next years to come." Reflecting on the situation, he said: "Energy and geopolitics have been always interwoven. But I have never, ever seen ... such a dark and long shadow of geopolitics." He added: "Unfortunately, energy is at the heart of many conflicts which, again, makes me, as an energy person, rather sad, to be honest."
Why This Matters:
The potential jet fuel shortage illustrates the vulnerability of European economies to supply chain disruptions and the strategic importance of secure energy routes. With airlines already cutting flights due to cost pressures and consumers facing higher fares, the crisis demonstrates how geopolitical instability translates directly into economic hardship for businesses and households. The warning that developing nations will bear the heaviest burden underscores how energy security failures ripple through global markets, potentially triggering recession in weaker economies. Iran's toll-booth precedent threatens the principle of free navigation that underpins international commerce, while the two-year recovery timeline suggests prolonged inflationary pressure and economic uncertainty. The crisis may accelerate shifts toward energy independence and alternative sources, including nuclear power, as nations recognize the risks of depending on vulnerable chokepoints controlled by hostile actors.