A 10-day ceasefire between Lebanon and Israel, brokered by US President Donald Trump, is set to begin at midnight Israel time, while Israel maintains a security buffer stretching 10 kilometers into southern Lebanon. This temporary halt to hostilities comes as a 25-year-old man was severely wounded in Carmiel, northern Israel, by a Hezbollah rocket barrage just hours before the ceasefire was expected to take effect. The Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) warned citizens to avoid Israeli-occupied areas in southern Lebanon and urged caution regarding unexploded ordnance left by Israeli attacks.
Imperial Mandate and State Power
US President Donald Trump announced the ceasefire on Thursday after separate conversations with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Lebanese President Joseph Aoun. Trump stated on Truth Social that “Both sides want to see peace, and I believe that will happen, quickly!” He also extended invitations to Aoun and Netanyahu for the first direct talks between the leaders of Lebanon and Israel since 1983, 43 years ago. An Israeli source reported that Trump and Netanyahu held at least one phone call during the day, noting that in recent days there had been no pressure from Israel for a ceasefire, only requests by Trump and other officials to minimize Israeli strikes in Lebanon.
Prime Minister Netanyahu later described the ceasefire as “an opportunity to make a historic peace agreement with Lebanon,” asserting that Israel had “changed the balance of security.” He confirmed that Israel would maintain a 10-kilometer security buffer in southern Lebanon for the ceasefire's duration, framed as a measure to deter Hezbollah. However, another report indicated Netanyahu told a security cabinet meeting that the sudden change and Israel’s decision to agree to a ceasefire was “a Trump request.”
Lebanese Resistance and Geopolitical Leverage
Lebanese President Joseph Aoun had previously clarified to US Secretary of State Marco Rubio and other senior American officials that a phone call with Netanyahu would not occur without progress in negotiations. Aoun reportedly told Rubio and others, “There is only value in such a phone call between leaders when there is significant progress on the ground. Without real negotiations underway, and certainly without a ceasefire, I will not hold a call with Netanyahu at this time.” These remarks, including those made to Rubio, reportedly led to a conversation between Aoun and Trump, during which Trump promised his Lebanese counterpart that “there will be a ceasefire.”
The broader geopolitical context reveals Iran's role in pressuring the United States to advance a ceasefire in Lebanon. Senior Iranian officials reportedly made it clear to mediators that without a ceasefire in Lebanon, progress in talks between Iran and the United States was impossible. Pakistan’s Army Chief Asim Munir, who was in Iran and in direct contact with Trump and Vice President JD Vance, conveyed this message to Washington. An Israeli source expressed concern, stating, “This is what should really concern us, the fact that Iran has managed to link the negotiations over Lebanon with the negotiations over Iran.”
The Cost to the Dispossessed
The Lebanese Armed Forces issued a statement warning citizens to “exercise restraint in returning to the southern villages and towns until the agreement enters into force” and urged them “not to approach the areas infiltrated by Israeli occupation forces.” The LAF further directed citizens to “adhere to the military's directives to preserve their safety, exercise caution and report unexploded ordnance and suspicious objects left after Israeli attacks to the nearest military center.” Hezbollah, in its first comment on the truce, stated that any ceasefire must not allow Israel freedom of movement within Lebanon and affirmed that the presence of Israeli troops on Lebanese territory grants the Lebanese the “right to resist.” Hezbollah ally and speaker of Lebanon's Parliament Nabih Berri also urged Lebanese to “postpone their return to their towns and villages until the situation becomes clearer.”
Israeli opposition leader Yair Lapid criticized the ceasefire, describing it as “all the promises of this government... crashing against the ground of reality.” He argued that the conflict could only end by fully and permanently removing the threat to Israel's northern border communities. Yisrael Beytenu chairperson MK Avigdor Liberman condemned the ceasefire as a “betrayal,” stating, “Once again, Hezbollah is being given time to recover and strengthen itself. The war must not be ended without a clear decision and the elimination of Hezbollah.” Former IDF chief of staff Gadi Eisenkot called the ceasefire “a bad omen,” attributing it to Netanyahu’s inability to translate military achievements into political ones, leading to a ceasefire being "forced upon us for the third time."
Prime Minister Netanyahu did not seek the security cabinet's approval when informing them of the ceasefire, holding an urgent conference call only after Trump’s announcement. He presented the cessation of the war in southern Lebanon as a fait accompli, bypassing the ministers. President of the EU Commission Ursula von der Leyen welcomed the 10-day ceasefire, calling it “a relief” and stating, “Now, we need not just a temporary pause, but a path to permanent peace.” She added that Europe would continue to call for the full respect of Lebanon’s sovereignty and territorial integrity and support the Lebanese people through humanitarian aid, without addressing the underlying structural conditions of conflict and occupation.