U.S. Weighs Iran Strikes as Election Clock Ticks

The U.S. military has prepared options for follow-up strikes against Iran after the U.S. midterm elections, leaving the decision to the White House as people across the region face the prospect of renewed attacks. U.S. officials say intelligence points to increased Iranian efforts to target American officials; Iran, meanwhile, appears convinced the United States and Israel are preparing another major attack.

The New York Times reported that the conflict had entered a more dangerous phase as political calendars in the United States and Israel drew closer to critical elections. The report said President Trump might want to show his authority as commander in chief remained undiminished, despite the war’s unpopularity even among his strongest supporters. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel could launch another strike even if defeated, if he believed his successor would hesitate.

Who Holds the Strike Options

The U.S. Central Command had plans ready for follow-up strikes if the White House authorized them, a source aware of the plans told The Hill on condition of anonymity. Another source said Centcom had several options to present to Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth. The president, the source said, would keep all options open until he had to make a final decision.

U.S. officials said they were focused on intelligence suggesting Iran might seek to kill U.S. ambassadors in the Middle East and American officials on U.S. soil. Director of National Intelligence Jay Clayton told Secretary of State Marco Rubio that efforts to target U.S. personnel had “substantially increased” and reached “advanced stages.” The report described Iran’s elite Unit 840 as carrying out kidnappings and assassinations around the globe, while noting that Iran’s ambitions had sometimes exceeded its capabilities.

More than 50,000 U.S. service members and about 20 warships were in the Middle East. Two aircraft carrier strike groups were in the region, and a third, the USS Theodore Roosevelt, was heading to the Centcom region. The Pentagon also sent 4,000 Marines and sailors aboard three warships, led by the USS Makin Island. Those additional forces could give the president more options for amphibious landings and other operations.

Harrison Mann, a former executive officer of the Defense Intelligence Agency Middle East/Africa Regional Center, described possible strikes against Iranian military and political targets inland, or against civilian and energy infrastructure if the Israeli military joined in. He said Israeli forces had targeted civilian infrastructure, universities and police stations at the start of the conflict. Ordinary people and essential services would fall within the reach of decisions made by political and military leaders.

Pressure, Elections, and the Cost

The administration was seeking major concessions from Iran amid stalled diplomatic negotiations. It viewed Iran’s economy as weakening under sanctions and a U.S. naval blockade, with inflation rising. Brent crude oil rose above $117 a barrel on Friday, its highest level since May, while West Texas Intermediate traded around $102. The campaign had also depleted the Pentagon’s stock of missile interceptors and some advanced offensive systems, driven up gas prices and shaken the Middle East.

Gregory Brew, an Iran expert at Eurasia Group, described the purpose of considering strikes as using force to intensify existing pressure, force Iran to capitulate, reach a deal and allow the United States to exit the war. He said frustration over the lack of diplomatic progress was part of the reason. The election calendar frames when leaders may choose to act. It doesn't guarantee that people exposed to the consequences get a say.

Mann said strikes had limits: U.S. and Israeli attacks could not destroy Iran’s military capacity or political leadership, despite assassinating key members. During the active stage of the war, U.S. and Israeli forces destroyed and damaged Iranian launchers and missile magazines. Last month, the Pentagon said the U.S. military had destroyed upwards of 90 percent of Iranian ballistic missiles, naval industrial base and drones.

Warnings From the Top

A senior European official warned that a gunshot appearing to target a U.S. official could touch off a conflagration, and that a stray explosion near a bunker sheltering Iranian leaders could trigger escalation. The report said those leaders survived the deaths of their predecessors in a decapitation strike in the opening hours of the war on Feb. 28. It also cited the Cuban Missile Crisis and the decision to invade Iraq as examples of how faulty or partial intelligence, or a failure to understand an adversary’s motives, could have deadly consequences.

The report describes no grassroots response or mutual-aid effort; the options it details belong to governments, militaries and intelligence agencies. A Pentagon official said the department’s “job is to develop and present military options to the President,” adding, “We don't speculate on hypothetical situations or future operations.” Tom Barrack, the U.S. ambassador to Turkey and Trump's special envoy for Syria and Iraq, said, “Could there be a strike this weekend? Absolutely.” At a Friday rally in Fort Myers, Fla., Trump said, “We may do another little epic fury. Or they'll agree.”