Who Gets Hit First
Memorial Day observances on May 25 could be disrupted in parts of the eastern half of the United States by showers and thunderstorms, while much of the West is expected to remain mostly dry and hot. The National Weather Service said in a May 24 forecast that much of the Central and Southeastern United States faces a risk of showers and thunderstorms on Memorial Day, with low pressure and plenty of moisture along a slow-moving front driving the forecast.
The agency said multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms are forecast for May 25 from the Lower Mississippi Valley, Mid-South and Southeast to the Ohio Valley, Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. More than 10 million people could face a level two out of five risk of severe thunderstorms, including parts of New Mexico, Texas, Florida, Georgia, Nebraska, South Dakota and Minnesota.
What the Forecast Says
The heaviest swath of rainfall and potential flash flooding is forecast from southeastern Louisiana into Tennessee and the Carolinas. On May 24, nearly 17 million people from Texas to West Virginia were under a flood watch. Flash flooding was reported on May 24 in southeast Texas in the Houston and Galveston weather service region.
In an X post on May 24, the weather service office in New Orleans reported that Gulfport, Mississippi, had received 7.19 inches of rain over three days, while Houma, Louisiana, had seen 4.09 inches, and New Orleans reported slightly more than 3 inches. The weather service said the forecast thunderstorms could be a mixed blessing for parts of the South: after months of drought, the region is in dire need of rain, but lightning or rain that falls too fast could create additional problems, sparking fires or causing flash flooding.
A high-pressure area is expected to keep much of the Western United States mostly dry and warmer than normal, with the hottest temperatures forecast in the desert valleys of California, Nevada and Arizona, where highs could climb into the 100s early in the week. The Pacific Northwest could see some precipitation as Memorial Day progresses, with showers possible and snow potentially falling in the highest elevations of the Cascades.
Dryness, Drought, and the People Living Through It
The U.S. Drought Monitor released May 21 shows the area of the country experiencing severe or greater drought has doubled over the last three months, rising from 22% to 44%, said Alan Gerard, a retired federal meteorologist who publishes the Balanced Weather blog on Substack. Gerard wrote that the Drought Severity and Coverage Index has reached 206, its highest point since 2012, surpassing a summer-to-autumn drought in 2023.
Gerard also wrote on Substack that an upper-air pattern called an omega block appears to be setting up, with a high-pressure area over parts of the Central United States and an active area to the south that will use very moist air to produce rounds of thunderstorms with "torrential downpours." The language may be technical, but the result is plain enough for the people underneath it: one region gets baked, another gets soaked, and everyone else gets told to plan around it.
In Maine, the weather service office in Gray warned of dangerous, unseasonably cold waters that could trick swimmers into not realizing just how frigid the water is. Water temperatures are only in the mid-50s across Sebago Lake and Lake Winnipesaukee, and in the mid-50s in lakes and rivers elsewhere in the region. If a person falls off a boat when the water temperatures are below 60 degrees, it can quickly lead to hypothermia, the weather service warned.
"Anyone on small boats, canoes, or kayaks should plan accordingly ... and use extreme caution," the weather service advised.
The forecast leaves ordinary people to navigate the consequences of shifting pressure systems, flood watches, drought, and dangerous water temperatures while the official apparatus issues warnings after the fact. The weather service’s guidance is clear enough, but it arrives in the same familiar form: a public told to adjust, endure, and be careful while the conditions are set elsewhere.